Building a European platform for evaluation of consequence models dedicated to emerging risks — SAPHEDRA

The use, storage and transportation of hazardous substances generates risks to people and the environment for which the acceptability must be assessed with models and tools. For new materials, new technologies and old technologies used in new contexts (e.g. large amounts of LNG, hydrogen in confined spaces, releases of aerosols which might contain bio-active compounds), the reliability of existing models and tools for risk assessment is not obvious because they have not been validated for these materials, technologies or circumstances. This uncertainty about the reliability of outcomes may hamper industrial developments.

Agreement on the scope of application and possible limitations of existing consequence assessment models is required to narrow-down discussions on the reliability and uncertainties of risk assessments for emerging technologies. In a harmonized Europe, it is necessary to combine available resources and develop synergies between organizations involved in the development or validation of consequence assessment models and tools.

Among risk assessment procedures, one of the most important parameters to assess is the impact distance. More generally, consequence assessment of accident scenarios is a crucial item in safety assessment. The selection of the more appropriate model for consequence assessment is thus a critical point, in particular when new technologies and emerging risks are considered, since in such frameworks a consolidated modeling approach to consequence assessment is usually absent.

The SAPHEDRA project will address the following research questions:

• What are the hazardous phenomena associated with new technologies or new materials?

• How suitable are existing models and tools for evaluating the consequences of these hazardous phenomena?

• More generally, what confidence can we give to the “traditional tools” used for assessing emerging risks?

• Is it possible to define a broadly accepted protocol for the evaluation of these models and tools and can this protocol be applied at EU level?

• To reduce uncertainty, is it possible to identify best practices for model application?

The SAPHEDRA project will deliver a formal procedure with a set of data to evaluate models and tools for consequence assessment of accident scenarios, useful for emerging risk management. The project will also deliver a platform to further disseminate information in the future. This will be the first time that it will be possible to compare tools (old tools and new tools) between each other for cases related to emerging and new technology-related risks and it represents the main added value of the project. The use of an internet platform allows to keep the information always up to date and accessible.

The Seveso 3 directive requires a detailed risk assessment where the estimation of the consequences of major accidents are key inputs for decision-making, such as the delivery of the permit to operate, land-use planning, and the preparation of emergency plans.

Three types of stakeholders will be interested in the results of this project:

• Regulators, who need to provide robust evidence explaining their decisions to industry, planning authorities and the general public.

• Industry and their technical support (consulting companies), who need to define and optimize safety constraints such as buffer zones around their facilities early in the design process, using tools that will be recognized by the regulators.

• Research community, who need to develop appropriate hazard evaluation models.