Building a European platform for evaluation of consequence models dedicated to emerging risks — SAPHEDRA


The problem addressed

The use, storage and transportation of hazardous substances generates risks to people and the environment for which the acceptability must be assessed with models and tools. For new materials, new technologies and old technologies used in new contexts (e.g. large amounts of LNG, hydrogen in confined spaces, releases of aerosols which might contain bio-active compounds), the reliability of existing models and tools for risk assessment is not obvious because they have not been validated for these materials, technologies or circumstances. This uncertainty about the reliability of outcomes may hamper industrial developments.

Agreement on the scope of application and possible limitations of existing consequence assessment models is required to narrow-down discussions on the reliability and uncertainties of risk assessments for emerging technologies. In a harmonized Europe, it is necessary to combine available resources and develop synergies between organizations involved in the development or validation of consequence assessment models and tools.

Among risk assessment procedures, one of the most important parameters to assess is the impact distance. More generally, consequence assessment of accident scenarios is a crucial item in safety assessment. The selection of the more appropriate model for consequence assessment is thus a critical point, in particular when new technologies and emerging risks are considered, since in such frameworks a consolidated modeling approach to consequence assessment is usually absent.

Research questions

The SAPHEDRA project will address the following research questions:

  • What are the hazardous phenomena associated with new technologies or new materials?

  • How suitable are existing models and tools for evaluating the consequences of these hazardous phenomena?

  • More generally, what confidence can we give to the “traditional tools” used for assessing emerging risks?

  • Is it possible to define a broadly accepted protocol for the evaluation of these models and tools and can this protocol be applied at EU level?

  • To reduce uncertainty, is it possible to identify best practices for model application?

Keywords: consequence modelling uncertainty hazards test protocol

Scientific disciplines: chemistry/chemical engineering

Expected outputs

The SAPHEDRA project will deliver a formal procedure with a set of data to evaluate models and tools for consequence assessment of accident scenarios, useful for emerging risk management. The project will also deliver a platform to further disseminate information in the future. This will be the first time that it will be possible to compare tools (old tools and new tools) between each other for cases related to emerging and new technology-related risks and it represents the main added value of the project. The use of an internet platform allows to keep the information always up to date and accessible.

The Seveso 3 directive requires a detailed risk assessment where the estimation of the consequences of major accidents are key inputs for decision-making, such as the delivery of the permit to operate, land-use planning, and the preparation of emergency plans.

Three types of stakeholders will be interested in the results of this project:

  • Regulators, who need to provide robust evidence explaining their decisions to industry, planning authorities and the general public.

  • Industry and their technical support (consulting companies), who need to define and optimize safety constraints such as buffer zones around their facilities early in the design process, using tools that will be recognized by the regulators.

  • Research community, who need to develop appropriate hazard evaluation models.

Keywords: land use planning regulators emergency plans

Workplan

Associated deliverables

An accidental release of hazardous chemicals will typically result in a number of potential physical effects. Depending on the properties and the storage conditions of the material, several typical phenomena may occur: fire, explosions or toxic exposures. In order to evaluate the potential danger, so-called “consequence assessment” models can be applied to predict the physical behaviour, or the phenomena occurring upon release of a hazardous substance. Work package 1 of the Saphedra project, “Building a European Platform for evaluation of consequence models”, is aimed at an identification of existing tools for consequence modelling. In order to be able to identify and describe these tools, a classification into various phenomena is proposed. This document contains a description of typical phenomena, associated with the release of hazardous materials. This classification is then applied to collect and describe various tools in the form of a spreadsheet. This spreadsheet is to be seen as an integral part of the report of WP1.

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WP2: Gap Analysis for Emerging Risk Issues
Final report published on 2016-06-06
The report identifies a shortlist of the accident scenarios associated to new and emerging risks related to industrial technologies. The document also describes the results of the gap analysis between emerging risk scenarios and existing consequence models. A set of test cases for the comparison of the available models is also identified. The results of the gap analysis between emerging risk scenarios and existing consequence models are also reported. A set of test cases for the comparison of the available models is also identified.

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This report forms the output of WP3 of the SAPHEDRA project, which is to review existing model evaluation protocols and to make recommendations for the structure and content of a new evaluation method that can be broadly applied to models used in risk assessment studies for hazardous materials.

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Work package 4 of the Saphedra project, “Building a European Platform for evaluation of consequence models”, is aimed at an identification of existing experimental campaigns for the validation of the tools for consequence modelling identified in WP1 of this project. On the basis of the classification into various phenomena proposed in WP 1, the identified experimental campaigns will be described in the following. This report contains a description of experimental campaigns associated to typical phenomena resulting from the release of hazardous materials. The results of the analysis of these experimental campaigns is then summarised in form of a spreadsheet. This spreadsheet is to be seen as an integral part of the report of WP4.

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Participating researchers

Stéphane Duplantier (Hazardous Phenomena & resistance of structures department, Ineris, France) — project coordinator

Benjamin Truchot (Fire and Atmospheric Dispersion department, Ineris, France)

Karim Habib (BAM, Germany)

Olga Aneziris (Demokritos, Greece)

Simon Gant (Health and safety laboratory, UK HSE, United Kingdom)

Matthew Ivings (Health and safety laboratory, UK HSE, United Kingdom)

Eelke Kooi (RIVM, The Netherlands)

Paul Uijt de Haag (RIVM, The Netherlands)

Mark Spruijt (TNO, The Netherlands)

Hans Boot (TNO, The Netherlands)

Andreas Mack (TNO, The Netherlands)

Johan Reinders (TNO, The Netherlands)

Valerio Cozzani (Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, Università di Bologna, Italy)

Gigliola Spadoni (Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, Università di Bologna, Italy)

Giacomo Antonioni (Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, Università di Bologna, Italy)

Alessando Tugnoli (Department of Civil, Chemical, Environmental and Materials Engineering, Università di Bologna, Italy)

Funding organizations

RIVM (The Netherlands)

TNO (The Netherlands)

BAM (Germany)

INERIS (France)

INAIL (Italy)

NCSRD (Greece)

More details

Duration 2014-04 to 2016-10
Contact email stephane.duplantier@ineris.fr
More information

Information last updated on 2016-03-14.

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